The Tigers showed signs of progre s in the first season under their new front office regime. Theres still another corner to turn to make this a legitimate contender. They could try to close the gap this winter. Guaranteed Contracts , SS: $98MM through 2027 (can opt out after this season) , LHP: $49MM through 2026 (can opt out after this season) Option Decisions , DH: $30MM club option ($8MM buyout) , C: $3.5MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines 2024 commitments (a suming Rodriguez opts out): $33MM Total future commitments (a suming Rodriguez opts out): $106MM Arbitration-Eligible Players Non-tender candidates: Kelly, Meadows, Turnbull Free Agents Rodriguez (a suming opt-out), Cabrera, , Towards the end of last season, the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila and hired Giants general manager Scott Harris away to serve as the new president of baseball operations in Detroit. Harris played things cautiously, taking the 2023 campaign as an evaluative year. Now heading into his second winter at the helm, hell face more urgency. Harris recently made a notable off-field move, tabbing Jeff Greenberg as #2 in the front office hierarchy. Greenberg had spent over a decade in the Cubs front office, where he overlapped with Harris, before a year in the NHL with the Blackhawks. Hes back in baseball to work under his old colleague and alongside fourth-year manager A.J. Hinch. The Tigers werent facing any significant free agent departures last winter. Thats not the case this time around, as starter could head back to the open market. The veteran southpaw has rebounded from a 2022 plagued by middling production and an extended stay away from the club for personal reasons. Rodriguez has turned in a 3.40 ERA acro s 25 starts, striking out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters. While his production has tailed off since a late-May pulley rupture in the index finger of his throwing hand, theres still a good chance he hits the market. Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his five-year free agent contract. His camp can make a strong case that hes a superior pitcher to and , each of whom secured four-year pacts ranging from $68MM to $72MM last winter. Rodriguez is clearly comfortable in Detroit and his partial n0-trade clause to kill a deadline agreement that wouldve sent him to the Dodgers. He has been noncommittal when asked whether that decision would have any relation to his opt-out call. From a strict financial perspective, itd seem likely Rodriguez opts out. The Tigers would surely be happy to have him back in the fold if he plays out his current contract, though theyll have to plan for the chance he heads elsewhere. Theres no suspense in two of the clubs other option decisions. is going to opt in for the final four years and $98MM on his contract. The team will pay an $8MM buyout to the retiring . Their final option call is on . Detroit signed the veteran catcher after he was released by the Diamondbacks midseason. That deal gave the Tigers a $3.5MM option for what would be Kellys final year of arbitration. Thats le s than Kelly wouldve made had he been tendered an arbitration contract. Kelly hasnt performed any better in Detroit than he did in Arizona. Hes hitting .182/.265/.295 in 16 games after running a .226/.283/.298 slash in the desert. Kellys production has cratered since he suffered a wrist injury midway through the 2021 season. Even at a $3.5MM price point, the Tigers could look elsewhere. Kelly would technically remain arb-eligible if the Tigers decline his option, though hed surely be non-tendered at that point. Itd be illogical for the organization to tender him a contract at a higher value than the option price. Even if they retain Kelly, he wont be the starter. That falls to , who has connected on 20 home runs in 353 trips to the plate. The 28-year-old pairs that power with highly-regarded defense. Hes a plus blocker, an above-average pitch framer and receives excellent reviews for his work with a pitching staff. If not Kelly, the Tigers would probably look to bring in another catcher but arent likely to seek out a new starter behind the dish. On the other hand, they could look for upgrades at most spots on the infield. First base is the exception. Former #1 overall pick has begun to look like an impact slugger after struggling through his first season and a half in the majors. Hes the only player locked into a spot on the dirt. Detroit has given looks to multi-positional options and . Ibez is hitting well in the second half; McKinstry had a solid start to the year but has tailed off significantly. Theyre each viable MLB utility players. Neither has demonstrated theyre capable of holding down an everyday role for a full season. Ibez turns 31 next April, while McKinstry will be 29. Its hard to count on either as regulars. Things havent gone much better for the rest of Detroits infield. struggled on both sides of the ball after being acquired from Philadelphia in the trade. Neither nor has hit well. Late-season call is 25 and has never been viewed as a top prospect. has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A. At least at third base, the Tigers can hope for better production in the near future. has mashed at a .306/.380/.552 clip between the top two minor levels at age 21. Hes now one of the sports top prospects and will surely get a look at some point in 2024, though the Tigers havent tipped their hand if hes in consideration for the Opening Day third base job. Harris resisted calls throughout the season to promote Keith or , instead opting for a slow trajectory for the organizations top prospects. Malloy is ostensibly an option at the hot corner himself, though scouting reports suggest he might be better suited for left field. Acquired in the trade last offseason, the 23-year-old Malloy owns a .277/.417/.474 line over a full season at Triple-A Toledo. As with Keith, he should be up early in the season, though the defensive home is still up in the air. Naoyuki Uwasawa Jersey Detroit isnt going to make a run at or , who has emerged as one of the better hitters in the upcoming free agent cla s after the Tigers non-tendered him a year ago. Players like McKinstry and Ibez could cover third base in the short term if Detroit wanted to give Keith a little more time in Triple-A. Yet theyd be well-served to add a regular up the middle. The organization obviously hoped Bez would anchor the group when they signed him to a $140MM free agent deal two years ago. Instead, he has hit .230/.273/.360 in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate. Bez is still the starting shortstop for now, but Hinch began to curtail his playing time toward the end of the season. The contract alone isnt a compelling justification for giving him everyday run. Unfortunately for the Tigers, its an awful offseason to be on the hunt for middle infield help. might be the best player in the free agent shortstop cla s. Its barely better at second base, where and lead the group. Theres not much clearer supply on the trade market, where teams like the Giants and Marlins could also be in the mix. Perhaps the Brewers would move , but hes not a great fit for a fringe contender like Detroit with only one season of arbitration control remaining. The Cardinals seem reluctant to part with . Baltimore could move , but hes coming off a dreadful offensive season in his own right. There are a few more options at the keystone, where or could be available potentially bridging the gap to former #12 overall pick , who performed well at Double-A in his first full pro season. Given the dearth of middle infield solutions, the Tigers could try to float Bez as a change-of-scenery candidate themselves. Yet hed be an equally questionable solution for a team like San Francisco or Miami as he is in Detroit. Theyd likely have to pay down over three-quarters of the remaining money just to facilitate a deal for a meager return. At that point, its probably better to hold onto him and hope for some sort of rebound. Harris and his staff can feel a lot more comfortable with the outfield. They moved from center to right field late in the season. A suming he progre ses as expected after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, hell be back at one of those spots. , who took over for Greene in center, hasnt hit much in his first look at MLB pitching. Hes a good enough defender that Detroit could stick with him in hopes the offense improves. and could see some time in the corners Vierling might also pick up reps at second or third base with Malloy potentially playing his way into the left field mix. has rated as a roughly average corner outfield defender. Regarded by many prospect evaluators as a DH-only type, he has impre sed with a .288/.346/.492 clip and 20 homers in his first full season at the big league level. With Cabrera retiring, the Tigers could give Carpenter a few more DH at-bats, though his ability to play an adequate left field gives Hinch options. With that group of young outfielders, its hard to envision the Tigers retaining . Anxiety i sues have kept Meadows on the injured list for the bulk of the past two seasons. His mental health is obviously the foremost concern, but theres probably no longer a place for him on the MLB roster. Detroit could also entertain trade po sibilities on Baddoo or Vierling, perhaps as a means of adding a depth starter or middle reliever. Rodriguezs potential departure leaves a question mark in the rotation, though theres still a promising group of fairly young arms. is the headliner. He has returned from flexor surgery and picked up where hed begun last season, working to a 2.95 ERA with a near-32% strikeout rate through 14 starts. Former #1 overall pick should be back after last years Tommy John procedure. somehow was hit by a comebacker that broke his foot on two separate occasions this year. Around that brutal luck, he looked like a decent rotation piece (albeit with an ERA that outstripped his peripherals). has flashed mid-rotation potential in 98 innings as a rookie. Theyll likely need at least one veteran arm to solidify the staff. Along with Rodriguez, the Tigers traded away at the deadline and lost (an impending free agent) to Tommy John surgery. Neither nor has done enough to secure a rotation spot. Detroit has ample short-term financial room. If Rodriguez opts out, theyd have just $33MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter. The arbitration cla s is relatively modest. Detroit has opened recent seasons with a player payroll in the $120-130MM range and has spent upwards of $200MM in the past (although that was under the late Mike Ilitch, while his son Christopher Ilitich is now the primary owner). Theres ostensibly a chance for the organization to make a run at the top of the pitching market. Harris was hired from a Giants front office that generally eschewed long-term investments in starting pitching, preferring reclamation and/or mid-tier acquisitions. Whether hell carry that philosophy to Detroit remains to be seen. If the Tigers wanted to aim high, theyd have a number of po sibilities. A deal in the $200MM range for might be rich, but the likes of and are consistent sources of above-average bulk innings. NPB star just turned 25 in August, so his expected prime aligns well with a Detroit team emerging from a rebuild. If they prefer to emulate the Giants model, the likes of , and (if his club option is declined by San Diego) could be targets. Detroit could also subtract a notable name from the rotation picture. once looked like an innings-eating mid-rotation starter whod be a key contributor. According to various reports, the relationship between player and team looks to have soured over the past six months. Turnbull reported a neck injury after the Tigers attempted to option him to the minors in May, leading Detroit to put him on the major league IL. The Tigers sent him to the minors once he was healthy, meaning hell finish the year just shy of five years of service. Turnbull reported a toenail avulsion that kept him off the mound for a few weeks immediately thereafter, though he has pitched since having the injured nail removed two weeks ago. Whether the team/player relationship has soured or not, Turnbull looks to have been squeezed out of the rotation. Hes a potential non-tender candidate as a result, although it wouldnt be a surprise if Detroit finds a minor trade return from a club interested in giving Turnbull a fresh start. The bullpen seems in good shape even after last winters Jimnez and Soto trades. Theyll likely let walk in free agency after a dismal second half. A quartet of , , and still gives Hinch a strong collection of options. Perhaps theyll bring in a second left-hander behind Holton, but its a quality relief group. Detroit erroneously thought the rebuild was over two years ago. They made the ill-fated trade of and a Competitive Balance draft pick for Meadows and pushed in for Bez. The internal core wasnt ready to take the next step at that point. It might be now, with Torkelson, Greene and Carpenter emerging and Skubal reestablishing himself as a top-end starter. There are still holes; the middle infield will be particularly difficult to solve. Still, theres a solid MLB nucleus, a few more upper minors contributors looming, and a mostly clear payroll ledger now that the Cabrera contract is drawing to a close. The Tigers play in the sports least competitive division. After a year to familiarize himself with the organization, does Harris consider this the right time to make a real effort at ending a nine-year playoff drought? In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Tigers-centric chat on 9-27-23. to view the transcript. Danny Jansen Jersey